RELASI FAKTOR MAKRO EKONOMI DAN CADANGAN DEVISA ASEAN DENGAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI

This study aims to analyze the effect of exports, imports, exchange rates, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on foreign exchange reserves in ASEAN countries, with the unemployment rate as a moderating variable. Foreign exchange reserves are a crucial indicator for maintaining macroeconomic stability, making it essential to understand their key determinants. The study uses panel data from eight ASEAN countries covering the period 2014–202, analyzed using panel data regression with the Random Effect Model (REM) approach and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA).The results show that exports and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, while imports and FDI do not show a significant influence. Additionally, the unemployment rate is proven to negatively moderate the relationship between exports and reserves, indicating that high unemployment can weaken the positive impact of exports. Conversely, unemployment positively moderates the effect of imports, exchange rates, and FDI on reserves. These findings imply that labor market stability plays an important role in maintaining foreign exchange reserve resilience and in formulating effective macroeconomic policies in the ASEAN region.