A Trend Analysis Of Orange And Apple Plants At Batu City, East Java, Indonesia

Apple commodity in Batu city has experienced a decrease. The decrease is due to land shrinkage, significant unproductive plants, and uncertain weather conditions. On the other hand, the orange plant in the Batu area has been increasing as the plant can grow well in different land elevations. This research investigates the production trend of apple and orange plants, the area trend of both plants, and the comparison trend of the plants in Batu city. The research design used quantitative and qualitative methods and in-depth interviews with several informants to acquire important qualitative data. The data on production, crop area, and the number of plants for apples and oranges came from the Agricultural Office of Batu City and the Central Statistics Agency. The trend analytical technique used the ARIMA Box-Jenkins with Eviews software. The research’s results show: (1) The apple production trend decreased, while oranges increased, (2) The crop plant for apples decreased, while oranges increased, (3) The plant number for apples experienced an extreme decrease in 2020, while orange experience the highest increase in 2021, (4) The factors that cause apple’s crop area decreased were the increase of temperature, the decrease of humidity, the plants’ age that was too old, excessive usage of pesticide, the increase of production cost, the decrease of apple production, and the low price of apple, (5) Orange experience an increase due to consumers demand, high price and low cost of maintenance, (6) The forecasting for apple production, crop area, and plants number showed a decrease, (7) The forecasting for orange production, crop area, and plant number showed an increase.