ANALISIS FLUKTUASI VOLUME PENGIRIMAN JALUR LAUT CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) TUJUAN DOMESTIK DI BULKING STATION PT. MINAMAS PANGKALAN BANTENG

The shipment of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) through sea transportation plays an important role in the palm oil distribution chain. However, the volume of CPO shipments at the Bulking Station of PT. Minamas Pangkalan Banteng fluctuates and may affect distribution performance. This study aims to analyze fluctuations in domestic sea-route CPO shipment volumes, identify the influencing factors, and determine the most accurate forecasting method. This research employed a quantitative approach using time series analysis based on historical shipment data from 2021 to 2024. The forecasting methods used were Moving Average (MA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Method accuracy was evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that CPO shipment volumes during 2021–2024 fluctuated without a consistent trend. These fluctuations were influenced by instability in Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) supply, substandard CPO quality, and weather and sea wave conditions. Based on the accuracy test, the Moving Average order 2 (MA 2) method produced the lowest MAPE value of 14.55%, making it the best forecasting method for CPO shipment volumes. The findings are expected to support more effective distribution planning and CPO logistics management.