Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Bawang Merah Di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Shallots are one of the most sought-after vegetable commodities in Indonesia, and farmers grow them because of the high demand. East Java Province is second in Indonesia for shallot production. Probolinggo, Nganjuk, and Malang are the three main districts of East Java Province that produce shallots. The demand trend for shallots in East Java Province has an upward trend, meaning that every year the demand for shallots increases from time to time. The forecast of the demand for shallots obtained also increased, which with a MAPE value on the out-sample data of 9.64% and based on the goodness criteria of the model showed that the forecast results were very good. The number of population, per capita income and the price of shallots simultaneously (together) affect the demand for shallots in East Java Province. Meanwhile, individually (partially) the factors that have a significant effect on the demand for shallots in East Java Province are the variables of population and the price of shallots, while the per capita income has no effect. This is explained to the people of East Java, shallots are one of the spice groups that cannot be replaced and the dependence of the people of East Java on shallots as the main element in cooking where shallots give a distinctive taste to their dishes.