ANALISIS PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI PADA EMAS

This study aims to analyze investment decision-making in gold by examining the factors that influence price movements and forecasting future gold prices. The object of this research is the monthly closing price of gold from January 2020 to July 2025, obtained from the TradingView website. The research employs a quantitative approach using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model as the analytical tool, processed through minitab. The results indicate that the ARIMA (1,1,1) model is the most appropriate and statistically significant model for forecasting gold prices, projecting an upward (bullish) trend until February 2031, with price ranges between IDR 725,384 and IDR 3,914,908 per gram. These findings confirm that gold remains a prospective and stable investment instrument in the long term, although investors should continue to consider external factors such as inflation, global monetary policy, and geopolitical conditions that may affect gold prices.