EVALUASI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI PADA PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA DI INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI NASIONAL MALANG

This study evaluates the financial feasibility of a Solar Power Plant project at the National Institute of Technology Malang (ITN Malang), Indonesia. The project has operated since 2022 under a 25-year cooperation agreement. This study uses a descriptive quantitative case study approach based on actual operational data from 2022–2025 and projected cash flows for 2026–2046. The analysis applies capital budgeting methods, including NPV, IRR, PI, PBP, and DPBP. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted by changing key variables by ±20%, while Monte Carlo simulation with a triangular distribution was used to assess investment risk. The actual performance evaluation shows total cash inflows of IDR 3,263,626,879 during 2022–2025, while the cumulative cash balance at the end of 2025 remained negative at IDR 3,946,373,121. The capital budgeting results indicate that the project is financially feasible, with an NPV of IDR 3,606,308,013, an IRR of 10.76%, a PI of 1.52, a PBP of 8 years and 10 months, and a DPBP of 12 years and 8 months. Sensitivity analysis shows that energy production and electricity tariff are the most influential variables affecting NPV, each by ±63.94%. Monte Carlo simulation shows a 99.43% probability of positive NPV, with a mean NPV of IDR 3,650,258,885. These results indicate that the project is financially feasible with low investment risk.