ANALISIS PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR, EKSPOR, IMPOR, DAN INFLASI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA DI ASEAN TAHUN 2014-2023

Foreign exchange reserves are an important indicator in maintaining a country's economic stability, particularly in responding to the dynamics of international trade and economic openness. This study aims to analyze the effect of the exchange rate, exports, imports, and inflation on foreign exchange reserves in ASEAN countries during the period 2014–2023. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The dependent variable in this study is foreign exchange reserves, while the independent variables consist of the exchange rate, exports, imports, and inflation. The analytical method used is panel data regression with the Common Effect Model (CEM) approach. The results indicate that the exchange rate and imports have a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, whereas exports have a positive and significant effect. In contrast, inflation does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. These findings suggest that foreign exchange reserves are more strongly influenced by international trade activities and exchange rate stability than by inflation directly. Therefore, policies focusing on promoting exports, controlling imports, and maintaining exchange rate stability are essential to preserving and strengthening foreign exchange reserves in ASEAN countries.