PENGARUH BELANJA DAERAH, IPM, DAN LAJU PERTUMBUHAN PDRB TERHADAP PEMBENTUKAN MODAL TETAP BRUTO 34 PROVINSI DI INDONESIA

This study examines the effect of regional expenditure, the Human Development Index (HDI), and regional GDP growth on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 34 in Indonesian provinces during 2015-2022. The study uses secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and applies panel data regression. Model selection through the Chow and Hausman tests indicates that the Fixed Effect Model is the most appropriate specification. The results show that regional expenditure, HDI, and GDP growth each have a positive and significant effect on GFCF. The estimated coefficients are 0.584630 for the logarithm of regional expenditure, 0.036566 for HDI, and 0.008080 for regional GDP growth, with Prob (F-statistic) of 0.000000 and R-squared of 0.991973. These findings imply that productive fiscal policy, improved human development, and sustained regional growth jointly strengthen physical capital formation across provinces. The study highlights the need to align local public spending, human capital development, and growth-oriented policies to support more inclusive and sustainable regional investment.