Faktor-Faktor Makroekonomi yang Mempengaruhi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia: Pendekatan ARDL

This study aims to analyze the influence of Foreign Debt (FD), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) on Indonesia's economic growth in the short and long term. The study uses quarterly data for the 2015–2024 period with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as the dependent variable. The analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) because it is able to accommodate differences in the stationarity level of variables and estimate short-term and long-term dynamic relationships simultaneously. The results of the Bounds Test indicate a cointegration relationship between variables, indicating long-term equilibrium in the model. Short-term estimates indicate that FDI has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while the CCI has a positive and significant effect, while Foreign Debt shows no significant effect. In the long term, Foreign Debt has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while FDI and the CCI show no significant effects. These findings indicate that financing through foreign debt has the potential to drive economic growth if managed productively, while consumer sentiment plays an important role in driving economic growth through consumption in the short term. Therefore, economic policy needs to be directed at sustainable debt management, improving the quality of FDI, and maintaining macroeconomic stability to strengthen consumer confidence and Indonesia's economic growth.