ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR IKLIM DAN FAKTOR EKONOMI TERHADAP PRODUKSI CABAI MERAH BESAR DIKABUPATEN KEDIRI

This study aims to analyze the influence of climate and economic factors on the production of large red chilies in Kediri Regency and identify the most dominant variables influencing production. The study used a quantitative approach with monthly time series data for the period January 2019–December 2024. The variables used include rainfall, temperature, price, and inflation as independent variables, and large red chili production as the dependent variable. Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression with the Robust Standard Error HC3 approach to address heteroscedasticity and outliers. The results showed that simultaneously, rainfall, temperature, price, and inflation significantly influenced the production of large red chilies. Partially, rainfall had a positive and significant effect, while temperature had a negative and significant effect on the production of large red chilies. The price variable had a positive but only significant effect at the 10% level, while inflation had no significant effect. The most dominant variable influencing the production of large red chilies was rainfall. This study shows that climate factors play a greater role than economic factors in determining the production of large red chilies in Kediri Regency. Therefore, it is necessary to manage planting times and provide accurate climate information to support the stability of large red chili production.