DAMPAK KONFLIK AFGHANISTAN TERHADAP STABILITAS SOSIAL EKONOMI DAN POLITIK KEAMANAN DI PAKISTAN TAHUN 2021-2025

This study analyzes the impact of the conflict in Afghanistan on the social, economic, and political security stability in Pakistan during the 2021–2025. Employing a descriptive qualitative approach and the Regional Security Complex Theory framework, this study demonstrates that instability in Afghanistan has significant implications for Pakistan. In socially, the conflict has triggered an increase in refugee waves, radicalization, extremism, population displacement, and humanitarian crises, all of which strain Pakistan’s social fabric. Economically, Pakistan faces an escalating budget burden, a decline in foreign investment, disruption of trade activities, increased military spending, and inflation, exacerbating the national economic condition. In the political dimension, the conflict contributes to deteriorating diplomatic relations, heightened regional political tensions, mass deportation policies, and pressure on the civilian government. Lastly, the security impacts include increased terrorism threats, border tensions, and cross-border militant infiltration, which reinforce radicalization patterns. This research concludes that the Afghanistan conflict closely influences Pakistan’s domestic dynamics across various sectors, affirming the relevance of Regional Security Complex Theory in understanding security interdependence in the South Asian region.