ANALISIS PENGARUH FLUKTUASI HARGA CPO INTERNASIONAL, SERTA KINERJA EKSPOR CPO TERHADAP PDRB ADHK PROVINSI RIAU

This study aims to analyze the effect of international crude palm oil (CPO) price fluctuations and palm oil export performance on the economic growth of Riau Province. Riau is one of the largest palm oil–producing regions in Indonesia, with an economic structure highly dependent on the plantation sector and commodity exports. However, the volatility of international CPO prices creates uncertainty regarding export performance and regional economic stability. This research employs secondary time-series data covering the period 2001–2023, obtained from official statistical publications and trade databases. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression with classical assumption tests. The results indicate that international CPO price fluctuations have a positive and significant effect on export performance, as does export volume. Meanwhile, export value does not have a positive and significant effect on regional economic growth. Simultaneously, international CPO prices and export performance significantly influence the economic growth of Riau Province. These findings suggest that the regional economy is highly sensitive to global commodity price dynamics through the export transmission channel.