From Waste to Resource: A Material Flow Analysis for Circular Economy Pathways in the Indonesian End-of-Life Tire Supply Chain

This study aims to map the material flow and circular economy potential of end-of-life vehicle tire rubber (ELTR) in Indonesia. A dynamic Material Flow Analysis (MFA) model was developed, integrating Circular Supply Chain Management (CSCM) principles and processed using Jupyter Notebook to quantify national tire inflows, stocks, and end-of-life outflows. The model incorporated national data and stakeholder-derived parameters, applying a mass-balance principle and Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty analysis. Key findings indicate that in 2023, Indonesia’s 1.52 million tons of tire inflow generated approximately 1.08 million tons of ELTR, with only 46% formally recycled or retreaded, while 34% entered informal disposal. The Circular Material Utilization Rate reached 0.68 under an optimistic scenario, with a Resource Recovery Efficiency of 72% and an Emission Reduction Potential of 2.4 tCO₂e per ton processed. Sensitivity analysis revealed that system circularity is highly sensitive to collection rate variability (± 20%), underscoring the critical role of the informal sector. This research provides a replicable, data-driven framework for policymakers and industries to advance a low-carbon and resource-efficient circular tire economy in Indonesia.