Analisa Serangan Balasan Iran Terhadap Israel Sebagai Instrumen Balance of Threat

The conflict between Iran and Israel is one of the key factors that continues to shape security and stability in the Middle East. Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel following the attack on the consulate in Damascus in April 2024 marked a significant shift from proxy warfare to direct confrontation. This study aims to analyze Iran’s retaliatory strikes as an instrument of the balance of threat based on Stephen M. Walt’s theory, which emphasizes that states engage in balancing against threats through internal balancing by enhancing missile and drone capabilities and external balancing through proxy alliances. To deepen the analysis, this study also employs Deterrence Theory (Thomas Schelling), which explains tactical mechanisms such as deterrence by denial, deterrence by punishment, and costly signaling. The method used is descriptive qualitative analysis with secondary data derived from literature reviews. The results of the study indicate that Iran’s retaliatory strike represents the culmination of a long-term balancing strategy, featuring internal balancing through missiles and drones and external balancing through the Axis of Resistance network, while simultaneously serving as a costly signal to restore the credibility of Iran’s deterrence following Israel’s violation of its sovereignty. This study concludes that Iran’s retaliatory strike is an instrument of the balance of threat, equipped with deterrence mechanisms as its tactical objective.