PENERAPAN METODE COLLABORATIVE PLANNING, FORECASTING, AND REPLENISHMENT (CPFR) DALAM MENGURANGI BULLWHIP EFFECT PADA RANTAI PASOK PT. PETROWIDADA

This study was motivated by the emergence of the bullwhip effect phenomenon in the supply chain of PT. Petrowidada, which caused an imbalance between demand and orders, thereby disrupting distribution efficiency. To overcome this problem, this study applies the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) method as a collaborative approach from suppliers, companies, to customers in planning, forecasting, and procurement of goods. The literature review covers supply chain management theory, the bullwhip effect, forecasting using the ARIMA method, and the concept of safety stock. This study
uses primary data collected through interviews with the company and secondary data in the form of historical data on O-Xylene raw material orders and Phthalic Anhydride (PA) product demand for the period 2022 to 2024. The analysis was conducted by calculating the bullwhip effect value before and after the implementation of CPFR, using the ARIMA (0,1,1) method as the forecast, and obtained a MAPE of 24.65%, which indicates that the forecasting accuracy is feasible for use. The results showed a decrease in the bullwhip effect value from 1.015 to 0.952, or 6.15%. The implementation of CPFR has proven to be able to reduce order fluctuations, improve information coordination, and strengthen the
stability of the company's supply chain.