ANALISIS TREND PERKEMBANGAN HARGA TOMAT DI JAWA TIMUR

Price fluctuations of horticultural commodities, particularly tomatoes, are a critical concern in the agricultural sector of East Java. This study aims to analyze the price trend of tomatoes from 2019 to 2023 and to identify the influencing factors. The research uses secondary data, including average annual tomato prices sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the East Java Agricultural Department. The method applied is trend analysis using a simple linear regression approach. The results indicate that tomato prices fluctuated with an overall increasing tendency over the five-year period. The highest price was recorded in 2022, while a significant decline occurred in 2023. The regression coefficient of 500 suggests that tomato prices increased by an average of Rp500 per year. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.72 implies that 72% of the price variation can be explained by the trend model. Price fluctuations are influenced by weather conditions, harvest season, distribution, production costs, and market demand. These findings are expected to serve as a foundation for price policy formulation and sustainable distribution strategies for horticultural commodities.