ANALISIS TEKNIKAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE CHART PATTERN UNTUK PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI DIPASAR MODAL INDEKS IDX30 PERIODE 2024

The background of the study is based on the high volatility of the Indonesian capital market, the uncertainty faced by investors in making investment decisions and the urgency of stock valuation by maximizing the use of appropriate analysis. The research method uses a quantitative approach with a purposive sampling technique in selecting samples. The objects of the study were TLKM and BMRI stocks selected based on the largest market capitalization in 2 different business sectors in the IDX30 Index. Identification of chart patterns includes continuation, reversal and bilateral patterns on daily (D1) and 4-hour (H4) time frames. The results showed that the chart pattern validity level reached 96%, with an average valid buy return of 10.59% and a valid sell of -10.87% per transaction. The Double Bottom and Bullish Flag patterns were the most profitable, while Head & Shoulders and Double Top were effective for sell signals. The proportion test produced Z = 4.84 (> 1.96) which showed a significant difference between valid and invalid signals. The Chi-Square test of 0.1606 (<3.84) showed no significant difference between signal types and validity levels. Split-sample reliability test with hit rate of 97% (training) and 93% (testing) indicates the chart pattern model is stable and consistent in predicting the price direction of IDX30 stocks, especially TLKM and BMRI. In conclusion, the chart pattern method has proven effective as a reliable technical analysis tool in providing investment decision information covering buy, sell, and hold actions on IDX30 stocks, with a strong basis from both empirical, theoretical, and statistical aspects.