ANALISA SIKAP POLITIK NETRAL-PASIF RUSIA DALAM KONFLIK PEMBANGUNAN GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD)

This study aims to analyze the reasons behind Russia's neutral-passive stance in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) construction conflict, focusing on the question of why Russia does not take an active and dominant role in the conflict despite its capacity and good relations with the disputing parties. Using an approach through neoclassical realism theory, this study identifies that this stance is the result of the interaction between international system pressures and Russian domestic elite calculations of the risks of direct involvement. Amidst global geopolitical competition in the East African region, Russia chooses to maintain bilateral relations with Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan through military cooperation, energy, and symbolic support, rather than being ambitious to mediate in a complicated mediation in the dispute. This stance reflects a selective engagement strategy based on considerations of long-term benefits and stability of Russia's influence in the region. This finding strengthens the relevance of neoclassical realism in explaining the foreign policy or political attitudes of large countries that are realistic and based on profit and loss calculations.