DILEMA EKONOMI KELAS MENENGAH: DETERMINAN MIDDLE INCOME TRAP MELALUI PERSPEKTIF GNI PER KAPITA DAN FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI DI ASEAN-4

This study aims to analyze the long-term and short-term effects on macroeconomic factors (Portfolio Investment, Remittances, Crops, and Inflation) on (GNI Per Capita) to determine the effect on the condition of the middle income trap. The middle income trap is a situation where the country experiences income stagnation at the middle income level and does not develop to the high income level. This research. The objects used in the study are 4 ASEAN countries, namely Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The method used in this study is the analysis of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) panel. The results obtained in the long-term study include the variables of portfolio investment, exchange rate, and inflation have a positive effect, while the remittance variable has no effect on GNI per capita. In the short term, exchange rate variables have a negative effect and iInflation has a positive effect on GNI per capita. Variables that have no effect in the short term are portfolio investments and remittances.