FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KETERSEDIAAN BAWANG MERAH DI JAWA TIMUR

East Java is the second largest center of shallot production. This study aims to (1) analyze the trend of shallot availability in East Java in 2013-2023, (2) analyze the projected availability of shallots in East Java in 2024-2030, and (3) analyze the factors affecting the availability of shallots in East Java in 2013-2023. The analysis method used is a quantitative forecasting method using time series data from 2013-2023, forecasting analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study show that (1) the trend of the availability of shallots in East Java in 2013-2023 fluctuates and tends to increase every year by 24,349 tons. (2) The projected availability of shallots in 2024-2030 is 407,288 tons, 431,637 tons, 455,986 tons, 480,335 tons, 504,684 tons, 529,033 tons, 553,382 tons and is projected to increase with an average increase percentage of 6.79%. (3) Factors affecting the availability of shallots in East Java in 2013-2023 are production variables, harvest area, productivity and consumption. The production and consumption variables had a significant effect, while the variables of harvest area and productivity had no significant effect.