PENGARUH KURS TUKAR, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, DAN TINGKAT INFLASI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Novisa, Kenny (2009) PENGARUH KURS TUKAR, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, DAN TINGKAT INFLASI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA. Other thesis, University of Muhammadiyah Malang.

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Abstract

Research subsumes into a quantitative descriptive study entitled “The Effect of Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Inflation Rate on Composite Stock Price Index at Indonesia Stock Exchange”. The objective of research seems to examine the simultaneous and partial effects of independent variable on dependent variable at Indonesia Stock Exchange, and to understand the most dominant independent variable in affecting Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). In this research, the author considers five hypotheses. The first hypothesis explains that exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate significantly affect IHSG. The second hypothesis asserts that the exchange rate significantly affects IHSG. The third proposes that the interest rate significantly influences IHSG. The fourth hypothesis clarifies that inflation rate has significant effect on IHSG. Finally, the fifth determines that the interest rate has the most dominant effect on IHSG. The analysis techniques involve multiple linear regression analysis and classic assumption deviance test. The analysis tools to understand the significant effect of three independent variables on IHSG include F-test and t-test. Research also employs classic assumption deviance test. The independent variable with the most dominant effect has been recognized through the greatest t-count and the smallest probability rate. Results of multiple linear regression analysis indicate that Fcount > Ftable equals to 59,398 > 3,239. Such condition means that exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate significantly affect IHSG. Adjusted-R2 value of 0.902 shows that the variation in these three independent variables used in the model has 90.2 % rate of power to explain IHSG variation. T-test results in different t-count rate of each variable. T-count of exchange rate of -11.329 < -2.120 confirms the significant effect of exchange rate on IHSG. T-count of interest rate to -2.432 < -2.120 underlines the significant effect of interest rate on IHSG. T-count of inflation rate for -2.120 ≤ -0.143 ≤ 2.120 underscores the absence of significant inflation rate’s effect on IHSG. T-test also declares that the exchange rate has the greatest t-count and the smallest probability value. Therefore, exchange rate has the most dominant effect on IHSG. Considering these analysis results, one may imply that the movement of exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate can affect investors in determining the investment type selected. When the exchange rate weakens and the interest rate decreases, investors retain their stock to be traded. The high inflation only causes unstable economic. These increasing variables force investors to choose other form of investment to ensure the decreasing stock price.

Item Type: Thesis (Other)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculty of Economic > Department of Accounting
Depositing User: Anggit Aldila
Date Deposited: 22 Jun 2012 03:31
Last Modified: 22 Jun 2012 03:31
URI: http://eprints.umm.ac.id/id/eprint/9059

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