ANALISIS KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI PADA BITCOIN PASCA HALVING 2024

The Bitcoin halving event, which occurs every four years, is believed to affect the supply and price of Bitcoin, thereby creating new dynamics in investment decisionmaking. This study aims to forecast Bitcoin prices after the 2024 halving and to determine appropriate investment strategies based on the forecasting results. A quantitative approach using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed. The data consists of weekly closing prices of Bitcoin
from April 2024 to February 2025. The results indicate that the ARIMA (2,1,3) model is the most suitable for forecasting Bitcoin's price movement during the analyzed period. The forecast reveals a bullish trend until the end of 2025, with a potential peak reaching $190,754. Based on this, a buy and hold investment strategy is recommended, particularly for medium-to-term investors. This study also supports the relevance of Signaling Theory in explaining how halving events act as
market signals regarding Bitcoin's future value potential.