ANALISIS PENAWARAN EKSPOR CPO (CRUDE PALM OIL) INDONESIA

T.A. SOUSMA, ARINDRA (2009) ANALISIS PENAWARAN EKSPOR CPO (CRUDE PALM OIL) INDONESIA. Other thesis, University of Muhammadiyah Malang.

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Abstract

Oil palm has been one of the most dynamic of Indonesia’s agricultural subsectors, which one of its product is CPO. Prospects for the CPO market in international market from consumption sector estimated that it is still grow around 3,5% - 4,5% per year, while from commerce sector about 3,8% per year. Indonesian CPO exports at last decade increased by 7 - 8% per year. This research aims to know the factors that influenced Indonesian CPO exports supply and to know the level of influenced of the factors to Indonesian CPO exports supply. This research uses secondary data for analysed by log linier double regression of smallest square method (OLS). It is tested using classic assumption test (multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation), R2 test, F test, and t test. The earliest model face on multicollinearity problem, so that stepwise method is used to lessen the problem. After used stepwise method, there are two excluded var iables, volume exports variable and world soybean prices variable. Model is free from heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problem. The R2 value is 0,977. F test result shows that world CPO prices , rupiah exchange rate to American dollar, and times have an effect toward Indonesian CPO exports supply. T test results show that world CPO prices and rupiah exchange rate to American dollar have negative influence, while times have positive effect toward Indonesian CPO exports supply. Excluded variables, volume exports variable and world soybean prices variable, don't have influence toward Indonesian CPO exports supply at the observation period in year 1986 - 2006. In the short run, Indonesian CPO exports supply’s elasticity value is 0,642, which means it is ine lastic to export prices change. This research us es secondary data that has “given” character so it has a weakness, which is the result analysis experiences multicollinearity problem. Besides there are variables that not yet included to the model, for exam ple CPO produced variable. When world CPO price leaps highly, the government should carefully consider which to be protected, the importance of exports or domestic stocks.

Item Type: Thesis (Other)
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Agriculture & Animal Husbandry > Department of Agribusiness
Depositing User: Anggit Aldila
Date Deposited: 04 Jul 2012 08:43
Last Modified: 04 Jul 2012 08:43
URI: http://eprints.umm.ac.id/id/eprint/11026

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